O Reilly Auto Parts 500 Predictions
- July 16
- by Micah Roberts
- VegasInsider.com
- O'reilly Auto Parts 500 Expert Picks
- O'reilly Auto Parts 500 Predictions
- O'reilly Auto Parts Nascar
- O'reillys Auto Parts Store
Find the store nearest you for store hours, phone numbers, and store services. Place your order online at OReillyAuto.com and pick it up at one of our 22 stores in New York. Our Parts Professionals provide store services like battery testing, wiper blade replacement, and more. O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 Vegas picks, predictions, lineup 2021: Legendary expert fading Kyle Larson at Daytona Micah Roberts pioneered wagering on NASCAR and just locked in his 2021 O'Reilly Auto. The NASCAR Cup Series will stay at Daytona International Speedway this weekend from Daytona Beach, Florida and VegasInsider.com expert Micah Roberts previews the O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 road race. Plus he provides Top 5 NASCAR Picks and Predictions for for event on Sunday Feb. NASCAR Cup Series O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 Top Five Prediction. Sun 2/21 3:00 ET. NASCAR Cup Series: O'Reilly Auto Parts 253. $500 nascar Top Stories. Best 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship Picks, Predictions and Odds: Hamlin primed to win first Cup Series Title. The year 2020 saw plenty of up and downs throughout the sports world,.
NASCAR Cup Series
O'Reilly Auto Parts 500
Betting Resources
- Race: O'Reilly Auto Parts 500
- Date: Sunday, July 19, 2020
- TV-Time: NBC, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Texas Motor Speedway
- Location: Sparta, Kentucky
Everything is big in Texas, including a live long shot I'm on that is currently on an amazing run in 2020. More on the driver in a moment, but first let’s set up the 18th race of the season with some context or least what area we should attack with the first wave of wagers in this week’s betting strategy.
Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway will be the seventh race of the season on 1.5-mile tracks and the first six have been by six different drivers culminating with Stewart-Haas Racing driver Cole Custer’s win at Kentucky Speedway last week that paid out 300/1 odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
NASCAR Cup Odds
O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 Odds
Sunday, July 19, 2020
- Kevin Harvick +300
- Kyle Busch +600
- Denny Hamlin +600
- Martin Truex Jr. +800
- Ryan Blaney +1000
- Joey Logano +1000
- Chase Elliott +1000
- Brad Keselowski +1000
- Kurt Busch +2500
- Aric Almirola +2500
- (Odds Subject to Change)
NASCAR Cup Series
Handicapping Texas 500
Harvick vs. the Field
Last fall at Texas during the playoffs we saw the SHR drivers finished 1-2-3 showing they had a clear edge over the other teams on the high-banked layout and they’ll be using a race package this week that is almost the same as 2019.
Kevin Harvick won that race, his third in five races there, after not winning any in his first 29 starts. His last six starts all came on the resurfaced asphalt and it’s obvious that Harvick and crew chief Rodney Childers like their set-up for it very much.
Harvick and Childers have been together in the No. 4 SHR ride since 2014 and in the last 11 races there together they’ve had 11 straight top-10 finishes which include third or better in seven of those. Since switching from Chevrolet to Ford in 2017 he’s won his Texas races each of the three seasons.
O'reilly Auto Parts 500 Expert Picks
He comes in as the best using this week’s race package that produces 550 horsepower which has netted him eight of his 10 series-leading top-fives in the 12 races it’s been used so far, which also includes all four of his wins which is tied with Denny Hamlin for the most in the series.
Between Harvick’s recent dominance at Texas and his incredible 2020, the SuperBook has posted him as a massive 3/1 betting favorite to win. What am I supposed to do with that? If you bet him to win again to make a profit you have to limit your drivers bet and increase the normal betting amount.
Come on, 3-to-1 to win a race against 39 other drivers when I’ve seen him times this season fall flat when he doesn’t have clean air upfront. That was the case on the last 1.5-mile track last week at Kentucky, but he still found his way to finish fourth with a chance of winning at the end. He was terrible and got better late. But in the second Charlotte race, he led 63 laps and dominated but got into dirty air late and finished 10th.
Hey look, I’m reaching and grasping for anything to talk me out of a bet on Harvick this week, and for some reason stats such as him only winning at Texas in the playoffs help justify betting against him.
But he has four wins in 12 races with this week’s race package which makes 3-to-1 sounds fair -- once every three races with it he wins. Then winning three of the last five there makes +150 seems fair.
Everybody but the No. 4
So what I’ve done is make cases for other drivers with a legitimate shot to win while making Harvick my insurance bet. Among all my staggered wagers, I’ll do the worst with Harvick and only recoup half my bankroll if he wins.
I don’t want to leave him out because of what he does every week, but I’ve got another SHR driver I like this week that I am bankrolling the most in my Week 18 portfolio that will go to my vacation fund whenever I feel comfortable from leaving my bunker and dealing with public air, and the public itself. And believe it or not, I’ve been quite comfortable bunkered up.
Custer won last week and he’s 100/1 this week even though he’s had top-fives, and a win, between his last two races using this week’s race package.
Clint BowyerO'reilly Auto Parts 500 Predictions
is 50/1 and has shown off having a fast car when getting out front, but I’m staking my week and future vacation on Aric Almirola who the SuperBook has offered at 25/1 odds.I’ve talked myself into it and made all the cases for him winning despite never winning on this type of track. His only Cup wins have come on the Superspeedways of Daytona and Talladega.
My confidence in cashing a 25-to-1 long shot ticket grows when I see Almirola was runner-up last fall in the SHR domination after leading 62 laps. But the excitement is mostly about what he’s doing lately ending with an eighth-place finish at Kentucky last week after leading a race-high 128 laps. In clean air, he was dominant. After a pit shuffle, he was in the dirty air and didn’t do as well.
Before Kentucky, his SHR teams had put cars out almost as good as Harvick's in Almirola’s hands and he reeled off five straight top-five finishes, his only top-fives of the season. He’s on the upswing and charging hard for that first win of 2020. I’ve made lots of excuses to justify him winning, but I’m okay with that. I just couldn’t let a 25-to-1 shot with a chance of winning not be played, and I took it further to be play No. 1.
While Harvick has won three of the last five at Texas, it’s been a Toyota that has won four of the last eight there and I’m going to take a couple of Joe Gibbs Racing drivers to offset what may be a reality of Almirola not winning. One of the Toyota drivers I’m leaving out is Kyle Busch despite him having 16 wins combined at Texas between the three series.
Martin Truex Jr. has never won at Texas but I’ll be happy to put him in my betting equation at 8-to-1 odds just because of what he’s done in two of his last three races on 1.5-mile tracks after struggling with the race package most of the season. He led 57 laps at Kentucky and probably should have won, but came away with a runner-up. He also finished third at Atlanta on June 7. He is the King of the 1.5s or at least he was before 2020. I look for him and new crew chief James Small to keep building off what they’ve discovered in the positive runs at Atlanta and Kentucky.
The next JGR driver I’m on is Denny Hamlin at 8/1 odds just because he’s been good at all tracks with this race package. The 750 horsepower package, not so much. But between saving his tires better than most and a car set-up for a championship run, Hamlin has three wins with this package and four overall. He has three Texas wins in the Cup Series, including the spring race last season.
The last key driver in my portfolio this week is Ryan Blaney at 12/1. He’s been the most steady driver at Team Penske and since arriving with the team he’s got both of his career top-fives at Texas. Even with lesser equipment in 2017 driving the No. 21, he won the first two stages and settled for 12th after leading a race-high 148 laps. He won a 2018 Xfinity Series race at Texas, but the reason to bet him to win this week is five straight finishes of sixth or better on the 1.5-mile tracks.
O'Reilly Auto Parts 500
Top-5 Finish Prediction
1) #10 Aric Almirola 25/1
2) #19 Martin Truex Jr. 8/1
3) #4 Kevin Harvick 4/1
4) #11 Denny Hamlin 8/1
5) #12 Ryan Blaney 12/1
NASCAR Cup Series
Weekly Predictions
eNASCAR Picks - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS)
For bettors looking at a larger score and more action, they can turn their attention to eNASCAR DFS. To learn more, check out our beginner's guide to eNASCAR daily fantasy sports.The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. The green flag drops Sunday at 3 p.m. ET with the race televised on NBCSN. Below, we analyze the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 odds and betting lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.
O’Reilly Auto Parts 500: What you need to know
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 7:05 a.m. ET.
Sunday’s race at Texas Motor Speedway will be the 39th installment since its NASCAR Cup Series debut race back in 1997 – won by Jeff Burton.
Kevin Harvick won last season’s race from the pole, and has taken checkers in three of the past five Cup races in Fort Worth. Last year’s win from the pole was the first time that had been done in 13 Texas races when Kyle Busch turned the trick in the spring 2013 race.Harvick has registered 10 straight finishes inside the top 10 at Texas, and has been 10th or better in 22 of his 34 Cup starts at the track.Joe Gibbs Racing’s Erik Jones leads all drivers with a 9.43 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in seven Cup starts, while Ganassi Racing’s Matt Kenseth is second among active drivers with a 9.47 AFP in 30 Texas starts.Chevrolet has been to Victory Lane just once in the past eight Texas starts, while Ford has three wins and Toyota has four checkered flags during the span.Seven-time champ Jimmie Johnson leads all active drivers with seven Cup victories at Texas. Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Harvick each have three victories at the track.Who is going to win the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500?
HARVICK (+350 for Sunday’s race) has not only been the gold standard at Texas Motor Speedway lately, but he and HAMLIN (+600) have been the two most consistent drivers since NASCAR resumed the regular season.
Harvick has two wins in the past four Cup races, and has been 10th or better in 14 of his 17 starts overall this season.
JOHNSON (+2200) hasn’t won since the June 4, 2017, Dover race. Eventually the No. 48 machine is going to return to Victory Lane. Why not in Texas? Johnson, who will start out of the 20th spot in Sunday’s grid, won from the 24 spot in the 2017 spring race. J.J. is certainly worth a small-unit bet at this price point.
Place legal sports bets on NASCAR action in CO, IN, NJ and WV through BetMGM. Sign up and bet at BetMGM now!
JOEY LOGANO (+1100) is a pretty strong value at this price given the fact he has finished seventh or better in seven of the past eight Texas starts. He hasn’t won since the Duck Commander 500 back in spring 2014, but his 10 top-5 finishes in 23 Cup starts at TMS is certainly impressive.
Texas Motor Speedway long-shot bets
WILLIAM BYRON (+3500) has rather long odds, but he is worth a look this weekend. He was 17th in the fall race at Texas, but he has finished 10th and sixth in the previous two spring runs in Fort Worth.
MATT KENSETH (+3500) has a pair of Texas wins on his resume, while posting 14 top-5 runs, 19 top-10 finishes and 883 laps led in 30 career Cup starts with a 9.47 AFP. As such he certainly warrants plenty of consideration.
Want action on this race? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.
O'reilly Auto Parts Nascar
Follow @JoeWilliamsVI on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.
O'reillys Auto Parts Store
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.